WEATHER AND THE VENUS TRANSIT 
 ---------------------------
 John Pazmino
 NYSkies Astronomy Inc
 www.nyskies.org
 nyskies@nyskies.org
 2012 June 7 

Introduction
 ----------
    For the transit of Venus on 2012 June 5 in the New York City area, 
NYSkies assembled a master roster of public viewing sessions. About 15 
astronomy centers -- clubs, colleges, musea -- supplied information 
for the roster. One version of the list was a takeaway at the World 
Science Festival street fair in Washington Square on June 3. 
    The couple hundred copies put out in the NYSkies booth were 
depleted about halfway thru the all-day fair, showing the incadescent 
public interest in the Venus transit. 
    The list also included in NYC Events and PazMiniBits for June, 
with the latter being a slightly updated version due to the timing of 
when the two columns were issued.
    An unexpected derivative of the compilation of the list was the 
sampling of dialog on internal discussion groups of astronomy clubs. 
Many clubs have a webpage, their own or linked to an external one, 
where its members can converse among themselfs. They are much like the 
yahoogroup fora or the older bulletin board or chat boards. 
    While in general only the members of a club may engage in the 
dialog on a given board, the postings are readily copied and passed to 
others outside of the club. Perhaps to illustrate the preparations of 
the club for the transit, some of its members passed along occasional 
samples of their board's dialog.
    These I rad for interest only, never considering to circulate them 
any farther than myself. Yes, they did show the work under way for the 
transit, as well as other astronomy activity of the club. 

Weird dialog
 ----------
    One overriding topic in the weeks before the transit was the 
weather prospects for viewing the event. The discussions were, to be 
kind, extremely agitated and animated. Members ranked out each 
other for credibility and sincerity, cited a this or that weather 
expert, insisted on a this or that plan for adverse weather, accused 
others of misinformation, and fired personal barbs.
    For any celestial event, like routine stargazing, weather is 
always a hypotect over the astronomer. Altho we can predict, to the 
second of time and angle, the profile of the Venus transit for 
centuries into the future, we plain can not foretell the weather for a 
hour later. 
    In simplistic terms,the dialog illustrated why astronomy rose 
above all other foretelling pursuits very early in human history. It 
was the only discipline that yielded to faithful prediction. 
    An Assyrian astronomer could tell for certain that Jupiter and 
Mars will stand side-by-side on such-&-such a day several months in 
the future. No one else could make definitive predictions, like the 
health of farm animals, yield of planted crops, flood of a river, 
severity of winter. 
    The best they could do is offer odds and chances and advice to 
prepare for prediction failure. The astronomer had no worry, Jupiter 
and Mars WILL meet up on that future date, Period. 

Weather situation 
 ---------------
    We came far from the early days of staring into the horizon to 
glean some hint of future weather. We got advanced sensing and 
monitoring devices, global network of recording stations, data 
collection and processing, computer analysis and rendering, satellite 
observations. 
    But, underneath the fancy gizmos, we really aren't all that much 
better in issuing competent reliable accurate weather forecasts. We 
read almost weekly about a weather calamity, in just the United 
States, that was not properly foreseen. After much finger-pointing and 
sacking of officials, the world is hardly the better for the 
experience. 
    Litterally, if you didn't like the weather situation last year, 
wait for next year for more of the same or possibly worse. 
    At first look it seems that the jack-ass debate among club members 
fits into this lack of weather faculty in human society. The main 
difference is that -- as far as I know! -- they aren't offering 
sacrifices to the deities to induce good skywatching weather. 
 
What's going on?
    -----------
    Having said all that above I do note that for the period of weeks 
around the Venus transit the weather predictions were in fact pretty 
much on the money. The correct forecast is 'chance of warm sun, clear 
sky, shady breeze, overcast, showers, thunderstorm, moist chill for 
tomorrow'. 
    The forecast for Washington DC included in the week before the 
transit a tornado watch and western New Jersey was booked for sleet. I 
DON'T MAKE UP THIS CRAP! New York City weather IS that whacked up. 
    The weather regime around New York in May and June is driven by 
the change of season, from spring to summer. It is normal in late 
spring, like around the Stonehenge sunset, World Science Festival, 
Coney Island opening day, Fleet Week, and now the Venus transit, for 
weather within a one day to range all over the map. I give examples 
below for June 3 at the Festival fair and June 6 for the lift of 
Shuttle Enterprise onto the Intrepid ship. 
    Anyone living in or frequenting the City region knows this 
quiltwork of weather. It's called 'springtime'. It's why on a sunny 
day you see cityfolk with an umbrella tucked in their backpack. They 
learned long a  to dismiss weather forecasts as a silly joke. They are 
used to getting a sudden cold wind without a jacket on a warm day. 

The astronomer 
 ------------ 
    Because the astronomer needs clear sky ro do stargazing, he must 
quickly get tuned to the weather. There are several ways to do this. 
One, the worse, is to just accept the forecast of a this or that 
weather forecaster. You can recognize that astronomer.. He's te 
drowned cat in short sleeves coming back from lunch. 
    An other is to somehow blend forecasts from several sources. In 
this strategy there is no consensus for a method of blending, like 
assigning weights to each source and striking a composite from them. 
    An other is to go it yourself by trending previous weather 
parameters or comparing New York with other towns. This is hardly a 
method at all since weather, unlike gold prices, can not be naively 
trended, as Elias Loomis showed that to us in the early 1800s. 
    A strategy now I see, in heightened vigor for the transit, is to 
just scream and bellow and argue with others. The last man standing 
wins the forecast and the club better go along with that one.

Practicality 
 ----------
    Most of us don't bother that much with weather in a large town 
because most of our day is indoors or other shelter. I, as example, 
ride a bus and train to work, shop locally within a half-K of my 
office, ride a train to the NYSkies Seminar or other after-work 
activity, ride trains and buses to home. My outdoor exposure is 
probably limited to a full one hour in bits and pieces during the day. 
    On the pleasant days I do take a long walk in midday, circling 
around a two or three kilometer path in city streets. If the weather 
turns adverse I duck into a store to hand and wait it out. Weather as 
such doesn't really impede me for cotidian functions. 
    When I stargaze,I must then be mindful of weather. Time and time, 
I look out in evening into clouds, later at night into clearing sky, 
owl hours into clean dark sky, in dawn into haze. Or into evening dark 
sky, light clouds, owlhour rain, dawn clear sky. Many many times a 
planned observing session is killed by adverse weather. On other 
instances I'm surprised to be treated to good skies. 
    Over the years I learned to live WITH the weather not against it. 
Yes, I lost eclipses, comets, aurorae, other unique or rare event. 
That's life for the astronomer. There is plain nothing we can do about 
the weather.Just live with it. 
    On and off I hear of some supersecret skunk works project to beam 
millimeter or micro waves over an enemy's land to generate storms 
against it. If such projects are in the works, they aren't publicly 
promoted. We are resigned to take the weather as it comes. 
    In my case, and that of hardened astronomers, we go out with full 
intent to observe a celestial event and let Mother Nature do her thing 
about it. We stand under the event, even if there are intervening 
clouds. 

Madness?
 ------
    Is this crazy? Why should I prepare for the transit, go to the 
observing site, and then be trounced by clouds? 
    SImple.
    I have NO WAY to assure the coming or not of clouds. If I stay 
home and the sky turns clear, I LOSE THE TRANSIT from my human nature! 
    Since I already put aside the time for the transit, gathered my 
gear, studied about the event, adjusted sleep and meal  regimen, and 
all that, isn't it genuinely easier and simpler to just go thru the 
exercise regardless of weather forecast? 
    It seems to me a thoro squander of effort to do everything to 
anticipate the transit and then pitch all that work away by a 
frivolous fear of clouds. If the weather breaks and your fellow 
astronomer bring back good reports, you'll be miserable for weeks. 
Picture yourself at a club meeting seeing pictures and hearing 
accounts of the transit which you could have been part of by 
presenting yourself to Nature. 

The dialogs
 ---------
    If the seasoned astronomer understands the nature of springtime 
weather in and around the City, what's with the hobby-horsey chatter 
on many club discussion site? From the samples I got, accounting for 
people I do not know at all, it seems there are three braod categories 
of commenters. 
    One is the newcomer to astronomy, who didn't yet acclimate to the 
prevailing weather situation. The transit, or other very recent 
astronomy activity, is his first real challenge to deal with weather. 
    The next category is the longtime astronomer who doesn't stargaze 
regularly, but only on special occasions like the transit. He, too, 
lacks weather wiseliness. Both of these kinds of person can be 
pardoned for expressing frustration and confusion in the face of 
conflicting and ambiguous forecasts. 'Please tell me once and for all 
what I should do on Tuesday afternoon!!' 
    The third group are the longtime people who do regular stargazing, 
but still act as if they are THE final word about weather. They claim 
some extra expertise or special news source and insist you listen to 
them. These are the guys who want elaborate contingency plans, as 
detailed as the naval battles of the 1700s. Of course no one pays them 
any serious mind. Then they get angry and the ugly dialog sets up. 

Cancellations 
 -----------
    Because stargazing requires clear skies, they are usually called 
off for clouds. In NYC Events these events are tagged 'cancelled for 
clouds'. For routine stargazing such a plan make sense. The crew to 
hand naturally paces the weather. Lots of crew turn up for good clear 
nights and only a couple are on hand under cloouds. 
    Why have anyone on site when it's cloudy? Two good reasons. One 
you probably understand by now is that the actuality of cloud is 
uncertain. 
    The other is that public may show up any way, not appreciating the 
need for clear sky. A club agent better be thereto handle inquiries 
and assure about future sessions. 
    For cancelled sessions, usually nothing much is lost save sky time 
under the stars. Sessions are frequent, monthly at least, at a given 
location. Some clubs have several series of stargazing at different 
locations, so you can try for the next one in a week or two. 
    Depending on the location of the stargazing relative to the 
'market' area for the public ,it's easier to just let people decide  
for themselfs to come or not in questionable weather, put a recorded 
note on a special phone number, issue a public notice via website or 
social network. For New York City, where people generally arrive on 
foot from surrounding housing or office blocks, the self-discretion 
method works well. City stargazing groups post an agent to advise of 
the cancellation and offer information about other club events. 

2012 June 3 
 ---------
    I give here two examples 'typical' of what happens in New York 
City springtime. June 3rd, Sunday, was the science street fair for 
World Science Festival, The fair is the closing event of the annual 
Festival and runs from 10:00 thru 18:00 EDST, a rain or shine. Being 
wisely about City weather and having expended enormous work and money 
to stage the fair, the Festival has no provision for calling it off. 
    The day started warm and sunny. The Sun ws actually dazzling, 
hurting the eye when walking into it. Set up in Washington Square 
proceded under a deep ice-blue sky. 
    NYSkies, like most other exhibitors, was in a tent that provided 
shelter in case of rain and to keep cool away from direct sunlight. 
Many other booths were open-air setups with no protection against the 
elements. One was directly opposite NYSkies on a wide footpath fielded 
by Hofstra University. It had several astronomy posters with a couple 
crew to explain them. 
    An other open-air exhibit was Rutgers University's sungazing next 
to the Arch, with about six small scopes with solar filters. They 
enjoyed a couple hours of crisp clear skies. 
    By early afternoon the sky started clouding over with scattered 
cumulus, but with substantial gaps between them. Sungazing proceded 
with pauses and the poster exhibit went along without worry. 
    Then pretty suddenly there was a cloud burst! A dashing downpour 
drenched the park! Visitors scrambled for shelter, usually into stores 
outside the park. Some crammed into exhibitor tents.
    The sungazing team rushed to NYSkies to stow their gear in its 
tent. This was a contingency worked out between NYSkies and the 
Festival before the street fair. The Festival gave a tent much larger 
than what could fit NYSkies as shelter for a rain emergency. 
    Every open-air display was soaked. Hofstra packed up its exhibit, 
now too wet to stand up properly. Other open-air booths were abandoned 
in place as their crew dispersed for shelter. In many cases these 
drowned booths did not reopen when the rain stopped. 
    This rain lasted only twenty minutes, after which the sky cleared 
again. The Sun came out as brightly as before with scattered clouds 
around him. The air heated up and dried the ground quickly. The fair 
resumed with the fewer booths. Rutgers collected its scopes rom the 
NYSkies tent and packed them up. 
    The sky wavered between bright blue sky wit bright Sun nad mostly 
cloudy and cool. But the fair ran thru to the ending hour with no 
further incident. 

2012 June 6 
 ---------
    This day, Wednesday, was the day for SHuttle Enterprise to be 
lifted from its barge to the deck of the Intrepid ship. From the 
transit of Venus show at Intrepid on the previous day, NYSkies learned 
that the SHuttle will arrive at the ship at 12:30 EDST and be hoisted 
to the deck by marine crane. This was also announced on the Intrepid 
website and in news media. 
    The day began with bright spring sunshine. I myself went to work 
normally, then signed out an hour to go watch the lift. I stepped out 
of the office building at11:30 into a rain sprinkle! The Sun was 
shining, a s evidenced by sunlight on the upper floors of towers. This 
was a sun shower! 
    I walked to the bus with a hooded jacket. It was a thin rain, 
actually quite pleasant for walking thru. Then suddenly it stopped. 
Just like that, as if some one turned off a garden sprinkler. The Sun 
was now in clear sky with a few cumulus clouds! 
    The bus ride to Intrepid, at Pier 86 and Hudson River, was under 
bright late morning sunlight. At the Pier the sky stayed quiet with 
cumulus congestus hiding the Sun from time to time. 
    From arrival at 12:15, in time to watch Enterprise round the turn 
to face Intrepid, thru 15:30 the sky maintained a consistently spring-
like demeanor. It looked as if the day would last like this until the 
night. By the way, I had to leave at 15:30 because I was overstaying 
my leave from work. Enterprise stayed on its barge and the lift 
finally took place later in the afternoon. 
    The rest of the day at work was normal, as such can be in the 
springtime weather pattern. Nothing much happened except that by 87:00 
the sky was mostly clouded. 
    I took my train home, which along the way runs outdoors. On the 
first outdoor segment the sky was thoroly overcast with only thin gaps 
for an occasional ray of Sun shining thru. 
    On the next outdoor run I rode into a full-blown thunderstorm! 
Lightning and thunder all over the sky! Pelting rain! Blustery winds! 
When I got off to change to a bus the rain was still coming down hard. 
    The umbrellas were hauled out of the backpacks as riders hustled 
to the street. I had the hoddedjacket which did defend against the 
rain until the bus came along. 
    The flashes of lightning and booms of thunder made for a spooky 
bus ride. But there was a yellowy glow in the west. The storm was 
passing thru, opening clear sky in the west. When I got home I watched 
a clear sunset!
    Not all that clear but definitely good enough for a Stonehenge 
sunset or a last look at Venus. No,there were no rainbows. And guess 
what? Later at night it actually cleared up well enough for some 
stargazing! 
    As wild a rain we had in most of the City from the thunderstorm, 
the southern parts and Raritan Valley area of New Jersey suffered 
worse. The rain turned into hail! Stones blasted the ground, damaging 
car panels, windows, other light structures. 
    These two examples show how weather can shift radicly during a day 
and overthrow a credible forecast. The best prediction was for chance 
of shower, rain, thunderstorm. If any occurred, the prediction was 
marked as 'good'. If none came along, it was marked as 'good'. 

Contingency
 --------- 
    For meetings entirely in the open-air, away from shelter, there is 
probably no choice but to scratch the event for clouds. With nothing 
else to occupy the crew and visitors in an open field,it's best to 
pack up and go home. 
    For places with or near shelter there can be the possibility of 
offering alternative program in case of clouds. The event could be 
rain-or-shine. The shelter could be a pavilion, gazebo, orangerie, 
garage, as provided by the site manager. The club must make proper 
agreement about using the shelter before the event.
    The Intrepid viewing for the transit, with a team form NYSkies, 
was such an event. The shelter for alternate program was -- I KID YOU 
NOT!! -- the underbelly of the Concorde supersonic airplane!  It 
didn't rain but it was a good focal point for two lectures offered by 
Intrepid and NYSkies during the clouded over spans of the transit. 
Views of Venus were obtained thru several gaps in the clouds of up to 
ten minute duration. 
    Suburban astronomers have it easier to find shelter than their 
city  fellows. Suburban folk go to the stargazing by car. They can 
huddle in them to sit out rain or cloud. It can be tricky to offer a 
substitute program but at least they don't have to flee for home. 
    City folk arrive on foot or transit. They have no ready shelter to 
hand. It can be tough to find emergency quarters for rain, wind, cold, 
other adverse condition. 
    One useful way to set up a stargazing session is to make the 
actual viewing of the stars an optional extra treat. The main program 
is indoors. The club gives a slideshow, film, lecture, demonstration. 
f the sky holds out well, the visitors go outside for stargazing. Else 
the session winds down for the night. 
    Such a plan does need a suitable available facility on site. In 
selecting a stargazing location, hard attention should be given to 
arrange for such facilities. In the territory of the club there could 
well be no luxury of a cloud-or-stars meeting but that must be learned  
by a dedicated and deliberate search.
 
Go-no-go decision
 ----------------
    For events that can be ruined by cloud and other bad weather, 
there could be a go-no-go system of alerting crew and visitors. With 
the whacky swings of weather in late spring and early summer, this 
means a hard-hearted process of issuing the decision and then sticking 
with it. A single specific person, delegated by the leader of the 
event, makes the decision and approves its dissemination to the world. 
This person accepts no challenges, objections, disputes for the 
decision. What he says is it, period. 
    How to distribute the go-no-go alert? A common method is by 
recorded message on the club's telephone. An other is a prominent 
panel on the club's website. At third possibility is to have a radio 
station pass on the word when announcing other events for the day, as 
it does for school closings for storms.
    Even in the case of a cancellation it is wise to station a club 
agent at the site to receive visitors who missed the alert or judged 
the sky on their own. It could be clear in spite  of the cancellation, 
which was issued an hour or more earlier. The agent explains the 
situation, offers litterature, reminds of the notification process, 
and welcomes the visitor to a future indoor club meeting. This agent 
can, if the sky allows, do star-ID and answer astronomy questions. 

Rain dates
 --------
    This plan is nonsense for the Venus transit, unless you don't mind 
preserving your rain check for 105 years. Some clubs when cancelling a 
stargazing session post a new date, like a week later, as a makeup. 
Depending on the social platform the club's market operates on, this 
system works well or not at all. 
    For the rain date scheme to work, the crew must obligate to TWO 
dates, not one. Else there must be TWO crews, one for the prime date 
and one for the rain date. In some markets this is no major problem, 
there being little else in the town to occupy crew's leisure time. In 
other markets a rain date is impossible to sell to the crew for its 
general busyness and lifestyle. 
    Assuming it's the same crew for the both dates, it can not plan 
any other activity for either date UNTIL at least the first date is 
passed. If the meeting is held, the sky being clear, THEN and ONLY 
THEN is the rain date released. According as the lifestyle of the 
club, this could punch a hole in the crew's calendar. It could be too 
late to fill by substitute activity. 
    Only AFTER the rain date is passed, whether as a go or a no-go 
date, can the crew revert to normal activity. How the crew takes to 
this saddling for two dates, only one, ot nonr!, of which will be 
realized for stargazing, is very specific to each club's market. The 
club must be wisely about the lifestyle of its members to properly 
operate a rain date system. 

Conclusion
 --------
    Altho this discussion of weather for the Venus transit was sparked 
by the dialogs on club websites, it applies to public stargazing in 
general. The essential point to mind is that, unlike astronomy events, 
weather events are no where near certain foretelling. No amount of 
claims to superior sources and intelligence can change that feature, 
else you plain would be the richest person on Earth with world leasers 
licking your boots.
    The club must organize its public stargazing according as the 
circumstances of its market. The wo main choices are clear sky only vs 
rain or shine and one date vs rain date.
    The example two days near the Venus transit illustrate how erratic 
weather, in the NYSkies, region, cn be. Contingency planning is a must 
for a satisfying program of stargazing, if not always a successful 
one. 
    clubs should mind the dialog among its members. One way is to 
close the dialog section from causal access by outsiders, perhaps by 
requiring a password or member code